According to an economic analysis by Perc Pineda, US exports of recyclable plastic materials reached 90.5 million kilograms in Q1 2026, representing a 7.7% decline from the previous quarter and a 6.5% decrease year-over-year. Plastics other than PET and polyethylene (PE) accounted for more than 70% of total export volumes.
Between 2016 and 2025, US recyclable plastics exports contracted at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15%. However, exports to USMCA partners, particularly Canada and Mexico, remained relatively stable, recording modest growth over the same period.
The trend suggests that the United States is increasingly strengthening its domestic recycling infrastructure while preserving strategic trade relationships within North America.
North American Partners Remain Key to Recyclable Plastics Trade
Canada and Mexico continue to play a dominant role in the US recyclable plastics market. During the first quarter of 2026, Canada received 37.1% of US recyclable plastics exports, while Mexico accounted for 17.3%, together representing more than half of total export volumes.
Other important export destinations included India, Malaysia, Vietnam, Turkey, Spain, Germany, Pakistan and El Salvador. Collectively, these markets accounted for approximately 84% of total US exports of recyclable plastics materials.
On the import side, Canada and Mexico supplied more than 83% of recyclable plastics imported into the United States, reinforcing the importance of regional supply chains and cross-border cooperation within North America.
China’s Role Continues to Diminish
Trade flows between the United States and China have changed significantly since the implementation of China’s National Sword policy in 2018. US exports of recyclable plastics to China have declined sharply over the past decade, while import volumes from China have also gradually decreased.
In 2025, the United States recorded a recyclable plastics trade deficit of approximately 4.6 million kilograms with China. Although China remains a participant in the market, trade volumes between the two countries are now substantially lower than historical levels.
These developments have encouraged greater investment in domestic collection, sorting, and recycling systems across the United States.
Outlook for the Recycling Industry
Growing demand for recycled materials, combined with sustainability commitments and circular economy initiatives, is expected to further accelerate domestic recycling activities in the United States.
As recycling infrastructure expands and processing capabilities improve, the US plastics industry is likely to retain more recyclable materials domestically while continuing to leverage strong regional partnerships. The transition presents new opportunities for businesses involved in recycling, sustainable materials, and circular manufacturing solutions worldwide.
